Mass layoffs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could have devastating consequences for U.S. weather forecasting, experts have warned. The cuts, part of a sweeping overhaul by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), include shutting down key forecasting offices that provide life-saving data for severe weather events.
Reports indicate that the White House is set to cancel leases for critical NOAA facilities, including the Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and a radar development lab in Oklahoma. These centers play a crucial role in producing weather models used by the National Weather Service, the U.S. military, and the Federal Aviation Administration. Without them, the accuracy of U.S. forecasts could plummet.
Leading meteorologists are sounding the alarm, saying the decision could dismantle the country’s ability to predict extreme weather. Dr. Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist took to social media to share his thoughts in a now-deleted X (formerly Twitter) post. He said: “If this actually happens, it would spell the end of U.S. numerical weather prediction”.
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Veteran meteorologist Jim Cantore echoed the sentiment, calling it “horrible news” for national forecasting, while 4029 News meteorologist Darby Bybee stressed that the ability to predict severe weather is now “literally in jeopardy.”
Many have pointed out the irony of these cuts coming just as the country faces severe storms, wildfires, and an approaching hurricane season. Oklahoma Rep. Forrest Bennett noted the timing.
On the above X post, he said “Just came here to make sure that the irony of severe weather occurring in OK the night it’s being reported that Trump’s DOGE is canceling the lease for the NOAA center in Norman, after laying off weather experts at NWS, isn’t lost on anyone”.
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The impact of these layoffs isn’t just theoretical — it’s already being felt. More than 1,000 NOAA employees were fired last week, leading to protests from both the scientific community and politicians. Many of those let go had highly specialized skills essential for interpreting weather data, monitoring tsunamis, and improving forecasting models.
“When you don’t have people and bodies to verify how accurate the model depictions are, you’re not going to be successful,” said Evan Belkin, who was hired by the National Weather Service in 2023, as he spoke to NBC News.
Kayla Besong, a scientist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, also spoke to NBC and warned that NOAA’s systems are incredibly complex and require highly trained specialists to operate. She said “I’ve been developing these skills for over 10 years. I’m an excellent programmer. Their systems are very niche, and they require people who know how to program.”
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Some have speculated that the cuts may be politically motivated, especially given NOAA’s role in climate monitoring. Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, a leading climate scientist, suggested Donald Trump's administration may be targeting NOAA because of its climate research. He said: “Maybe the word 'climate' in NOAA's Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is the problem?”
While there’s hope that some of these decisions could be reversed — similar to how the National Science Foundation reinstated dozens of employees after backlash last month — the damage to U.S. forecasting capabilities could already be done. With hurricane season just months away, experts warn that the consequences of these cuts will soon be felt by millions.
Tom DiLiberto, who had been working at NOAA as a climate scientist since 2010, offered his take on the matter after hoping some forecasters will be rehired depending on the severe weather and hurricane season.
Speaking to the Independent, he noted: “The government is here to help people. It’s not here to make things worse. But, what they’re trying to do is make things worse, across the board”. While the current US government is sorting itself, it looks like cloudy skies ahead both literally and figuratively.