Scientists say the chance of the 'most hazardous asteroid' hitting Earth is higher than once thought
Scientists have warned that the chance of the 'most hazardous asteroid' hitting Earth is worryingly higher than originally thought.
Experts discovered that the odds of an impact happening in 2029 or 2036 are more likely than once expected.
A recent study of the asteroid known as 99942 Apophis has shed some new light on the reality of impact possibility.
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When it was first discovered in 2004, the asteroid was put at level 4 of the Torino impact hazard scale.
A score of 0 would mean that the likelihood of impact was 0% and a 10 on the scale would mean that collision was certain and capable of causing catastrophe.
NASA described level 4 as: “A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers.
“Current calculations give a 1 percent or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
“Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”
While recent analysis of the asteroid has still found that it’s on track to miss Earth, it’s trickier to predict if a smaller object will collide with Apophis, and change its course.
In a new study, Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert looked at what size an object would need to be in order to move the asteroid onto a path headed for our planet.
Unfortunately, it looks like it would only take a small object to move the asteroid into a trajectory with Earth.
In fact, the item would only need to be around two feet in size in order to make the impact necessary.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom - it turns out that space is pretty big so the likelihood of that actually happening is very slim.
The odds of an object hitting the asteroid and shifting it onto a course headed for Earth are less than one in a million, however, that is a risk that is higher than previously thought.
The closer Apophis gets to Earth over the next few years, the better idea we’ll have as to whether it’s been nudged.
In a previous study, Professor Paul Wiegert explained: “The deflection of Apophis by a small asteroid onto a collision course with Earth in 2029—in addition to being extremely unlikely—will most likely be quickly eliminated as a possibility by simple telescopic observations when Apophis returns to visibility in 2027.”