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Experts issue a warning that climate change is accelerating at a pace we may no longer be able to control.
A team of over 200 researchers say that humanity might not be able to contend with what's coming as global warming reaches a 'tipping point.'
A tipping point is essentially when a small shift triggers a rapid and irreversible effect.
The team, led by the University of Exeter, has been awarded £5 million by the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) to investigate early warning signs on the Subpolar Gyre - an ocean current system that could tip quickly and soon.
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The new project is called Advancing Tipping Point Early Warning (AdvanTip) and is being led by Professor Tim Lenton, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
“Before a tipping point happens, we can identify signs that a system is becoming less stable,” Professor Lenton said. “We already have well-established early warning signals for some systems.
“While we have identified signs of a ‘critical slowdown’ in the Subpolar Gyre, we have yet to find reliable signals in all models."
The AdvanTip research team includes efforts from the University of Leicester, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of Bordeaux and Utrecht University.
Using a combination of theory, AI and physical understanding, the group hopes to achieve a breakthrough in early warning of tipping points.
“By focussing on the Subpolar Gyre, we can increase confidence and precision about when tipping points are likely to be crossed,” Professor Lenton added.
The Subpolar Gyre is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - a massive system of ocean currents that regulates regional and global climate. If it collapses, the consequences for Europe could be dire.
For the UK, it could lead to hotter summers and colder winters, impacting farming, infrastructure and overall public health.
“This ARIA funding is a major boost to our ground-breaking research on tipping points," commented Stuart Brocklehurst, deputy vice-chancellor (Business Engagement and Innovation) at the University of Exeter.
“Climate tipping points represent some of the greatest dangers we face, and accurate identification of early warning signals is vital.
He continued: “At Exeter, we are also working on powerful solutions – including positive tipping points in our societies and economies – to ensure a safe and just future.”
The AdvanTip project is part of a larger £81 million initiative of 27 international teams collaborating to detect the earliest warning signs of climate tipping points over five years - meaning we can act sooner rather than later.
